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The death knell was sounded for Rick Perry and Michelle

The 2012 Republican Presidential Primaries

THIS IS A CONTINUATION OF MY HUB Who Will You Vote For in the 2012 Election Obama, Gingrich, Romney, Paul? A Poll (12 16 11) Paul Running Away [66]. However, it will give those who voted before a chance to vote again. I received 43 votes in the last poll, the results of which I present below, along with some current standing as we head into the primary season in a few days; it should be fun and full of surprises, I think.

As you will Canada Goose Outlet see, Ron Paul was the hands down favorite in Hubland with a statistically significantly lead over Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. Now, Canada Goose sale most of the those votes presumably came from Florida given over half of the views came from this state with the rest scattered across the US and several world wide. The next highest was Texas, a very distant second.

There is not a statistically significant difference between Paul and Obama, based on those 43 votes, however. It is also interesting to note canada goose factory sale that Cain, Obama, Perry, and Paul all received several votes early on in September and October. Perry quickly dropped out and Obama slowed way down. Gingrich came on strong until he caught up with both Paul and Cain. Then, both Cain and Gingrich just stopped in their tracks; Cain for obvious reasons, but I don’t know why for Gingrich. Ron Paul just kept marching steadily along and Obama kept picking up a vote here and there. The only candidate who I think is the Republicans only hope in beating Obama, Jon Huntsman, hasn’t seen the light of day in Hubland, or anywhere else for that matter, except New Hampshire,

Following now are some polls. First will be a series of local polls, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida, followed by the latest national poll. As time goes on, I will add commentary and drop some completed polls out and add new uk canada goose ones in as well as keep track of the delegate counts. My bet is we have the first “brokered” convention in what, a half a century?

(By the way, how embarrassing is it when you are way ahead in the Virginia polling, as Gingrich is, and your organization is so poor, you can’t muster the 10,000 votes needed to get on that states primary ballot!)

THOUGHTSAS YOU CAN SEE, Ron Paul has timed things perfectly, whether intentionally or not. He is peaking days before the Iowa caucuses and is doing very well in New Hampshire. If he pulls it off in Iowa, that should give him a boost in New Hampshire which would probably secure him second place. There is a very large undecided in South Carolina that is up for grabs. In Florida, Paul isn’t doing that well, but that is an old poll; in my poll, it would appear Florida Hubbers like him so there may be a surprise possible there; time will tell.

I finally found some new numbers for Florida, what a drop for Newt Gingrich! Did Mitt Romney gain has he has elsewhere, not in my state, where in the same survey I found out that almost 60% of the people go to church either weekly canadian goose jacket or more than once a week and that conservatives outnumber moderates and liberals by almost 9 to 1; boy. Who gained? The undecided; in fact, undecided is in first place.

Mitt Romney finally won in Iowa. by a whopping 6 votes, I think it was. canada goose uk outlet The real winner, of course, was Rick Santorum and the real loser was Newt Gingrich. The death knell was sounded for Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann (thank God!); I even here they are “reassessing their campaign”. [Note weeks later it was determined that Rick Santorum actually won Iowa, not Mitt Romney. ME]

The way the vote broke, shows the Great Divide in the Conservative Party between the fiscal Conservatives, along with the few moderate Republicans that are left, and the social Conservatives. 40% of the Conservatives appear to be leaning toward social Conservatism as their primary motivator canada goose at the moment and went with Santorum, Canada Goose Parka Perry, and Bachmann while 38% are more leaning toward wanting to beat Obama and fiscal Conservatism and voted for Romney or Gingrich. 21% are Libertarians or are Independent, pacifist kids who temporary joined the Republican party to vote, and voted for Paul. Only 1% got it right, in my humble opinion, and voted for Huntsman.

The polls are starting Canada Goose Jackets to show up for New Hampshire now and it doesn’t look good for my Republican favorite, Jon Huntsman. While one earlier poll had him up to 13%, the two latest polls have him back to 7%; his only silver lining a the moment is that the Boston Globe endorsede him yesterday and the Undecided vote jumped big time to 15%. Other than that, the expected is happening, Romney is falling a bit, Gingrich is falling a lot, Paul and Santorum are gaining some.

In South Carolina, on the other hand, Gingrich has crumbled with Romney picking up his numbers, which sort of surprised me. Not surprising is the big bump in Santorum’s popularity; I am guessing that is where the undecided and Bachmann numbers went.

JANUARY 9, 2012 canada goose clearance sale The Day Before

It looks like Jon Huntsman may have gotten a boost from the latest debates, which is where the undecided may be going. He has bet the farm on doing well, meaning second place. Even third place would be Canada Goose Online OK, I believe, so long as second place is Ron Paul.

JANUARY 11, 2012 The Day After

The Pundits say Romney have it almost wrapped up; I disagree. Even though Romney came off canada goose uk shop with a respectable 40% win, Canada Goose Coats On Sale it was on the low end of his poll numbers and it was less than canada goose clearance 50% in a state where he had his best chances. My belief is that if people like Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, and, ugh, Newt Gingrich stay in the race, Romney will never take more than 50% of the vote in buy canada goose jacket cheap any primary and the decision will be made at the convention where only 30% of Republicans like Romney. Many exit poll watchers said that a lot of Romney voters did it with a heavy heart.

I watched the CNN survey of a focus group of undecided South Carolina Republican voters who had attitude meters in their hands to measure what they felt about each candidates speeches after the numbers came in; Romney did best, Huntsman next, and Paul worst. All three dipped negative, but Romney and Huntsman only briefly and barely. Ron Paul, as expected, went south on his foreign policy position; that is where Huntsman briefly went below 50% as well.

In my humble opinion, Huntsman gave a terrible after vote speech and should have had a scripted one, like Romney did, prepared. Even so, he did the best at the polls, doubling his opinion poll ratings for New Hampshire and quadrupling everywhere else.

Jon Huntsman quit today, throwing his support behind Mitt Romney. Although I gave Huntsman’s 6% in the latest National poll to Undecided; in reality, they belong to Romney, raising canada goose uk black friday his percentage to 46%. Perry seems to be stuck at 6% as well; assuming Perry drops out also, then Santorum should get a nice bump as well, to second place at 19%.

The new Florida poll also shows Romney switching places with Gingrich after voters to time out to think about it.

The latest South Carolina poll doesn’t take into account the startling news that Mitt Romney did NOT win the Iowa caucus; it looks like Rick Santorum did, but, because of lost ballots, no one will ever know for canada goose store sure. Nevertheless, the poll does show some shifting as Saturday approaches Gingrich is gaining and is in striking distance while Santorum is slipping. The rest are holding steady with Perry appearing to be a non player.

Today, Rick Perry saw the light and called it quits while, surprising me, throwing his support behind Newt Gingrich rather than fellow evangelist, Rick Santorum. Further.

The tide has apparently turned against Mitt Romney and he faces the prospect of being 1 win and 2 losses if Newt Gingrich wins South Carolina as the two latest polls from January 19 suggest; quite a comeback for Gingrich.

Well, it wasn’t neck and neck, it was a Gingrich blow out with 40% of the primary vote! Mitt Romney trailed badly with 27%, followed by Santorum with 18%, and Paul with 13%. Newt Gingrich’s win probably isn’t a surprise, but the size certainly is; now you have one win each for Santorum, Gingrich, and Romney. I think it is wide open.

Not surprisingly, Newt Gingrich has changed places with Mitt Romney in the Florida polls. Also surprisingly, canada goose coats and very pleasing, according to the exit polling from South Carolina, the debates played a significant role, as they should, in the outcome of that election; Mitt better sharpen up his game if he hopes to do well in Florida.

It looks like Mitt Romney will take Florida tomorrow, since it is a winner take all state and his poll numbers are growing while Newt’s are falling. I don’t think Newt Gingrich ever had a chance of winning the nomination, but there still is a chance he, along with Rick SantorumandRon Paul could deny Mitt Romney a clear win with a majority of delegates. I can run some numbers using CNN’s interactive map and end up with a scenario or two where Mitt doesn’t get a majority; in all of those, I gave Florida to Gingrich, however. If Florida going to Romney, it is going to be that much harder, when looking at just the winner take all states that should go for Romney canada goose coats on sale plus a couple of proportional states that will heavily favor Mitt, I end up with him only needing 242 delegates to win. What do you think?

I just post polls from Michigan and Minnesota and while it was not surprising to find Mitt Romney ahead in Michigan, I was amazed to see GINGRICH so far ahead in Minnesota; very interesting. If that holds, you can’t count Newt out yet.

The latest, 2/2/12, poll for Nevada was just posted and it contained a couple of interesting results. One was that Mitt Romney hit 50%, the first time, I believe, and Ron the canada goose black friday sale other is Ron Paul’s surge to third place. “. not worried about the poor,.”, is going to hurt him, even with Mormon voters. The “poor” comment may catch him on both sides, to his Left, it would be the “not worried about” part that is onerous, while to cheap canada goose uk those on the Right, as Gingrich and Santorum are already pouncing on, is the “., they have a safety net.” part that doesn’t sit Canada Goose online well; the “. not worried about the rich.” probably gave the Right the willies, as well.

The Nevada results are in and the only surprise is how close Ron Paul came to tying Newt Gingrich, without even campaigning in the state; in fact, Paul handily won Nye county and squeak out a win in Esmeralda county cheap Canada Goose while Gingrich barely won Mineral county; the rest went to Romney. I also posted what poll results I could find for the rest of February’s contests in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, and Missouri. As would be expected, Romney leads Arizona, uk canada goose outlet Colorado, and Michigan as well as in Maine buy canada goose jacket back in October. However, Ron Paul has been campaigning heavily in Maine and may win there while Santorum is actually ahead in Minnesota after Gingrich has faltered. There is no data from Missouri yet.